In two-way foreign exchange trading, once a trend is established, it often changes easily, a result of frequent central bank intervention.
In the two-way trading scenario of foreign exchange investment, the trading adage held as gospel in some traditional investment fields—"Once a trend is established, it will not easily change"—is actually difficult to apply to the unique characteristics of the foreign exchange market. Blindly adopting it as a trading principle can easily lead to cognitive biases and decision-making errors.
The core peculiarity of the foreign exchange market lies in the fact that central banks of various countries frequently intervene and adjust their currency exchange rates based on macroeconomic control objectives. Their core objective is to prevent the formation of a one-sided, sustained trend in the exchange rate and maintain relative stability within a reasonable range. Influenced by this core factor, the trends of major global currency pairs generally exhibit consolidation and fluctuation characteristics, with the probability of a one-sided trend being extremely low. Even if a local trend briefly appears, it is unlikely to be sustainable.
In fact, the industry consensus that "foreign exchange trend trading is dead" gradually formed as early as the beginning of the 21st century, and the closure of the globally renowned foreign exchange fund FX Concept provides compelling empirical support for this consensus. This fund had achieved some success in the foreign exchange market using trend trading as its core strategy, but with the normalization of global central bank intervention and the solidification of market consolidation, its strategy became ineffective, ultimately leading to the fund's liquidation and exit. Since then, no other foreign exchange trend-following fund company with widespread influence has emerged globally, further confirming the objective reality that foreign exchange market trends are scarce and difficult to grasp.
In the two-way trading environment of foreign exchange investment, Chinese citizens intending to enter this field must exercise extreme caution and avoid rashly participating in foreign exchange-related peripheral industries.
Such activities not only operate on the fringes of the law but are also constantly shrouded in compliance risks because current Chinese laws and regulations explicitly restrict individuals from engaging in unapproved foreign exchange trading and derivative services. Due to the strict constraints of the legal framework, the number of truly qualified and compliant forex professionals is extremely limited. This results in a very narrow potential customer base and a severely insufficient market capacity for related industries. In this context, even if they manage to maintain operations, their revenue and profit levels often struggle to cover basic living costs, let alone achieve sustainable development.
More importantly, lacking a legal foundation and professional support, many so-called "forex-related services" are essentially devoid of standards and genuine value. The content they offer is either misleading or practically meaningless, failing to generate substantial returns for clients and potentially fueling speculative behavior or even leading to financial losses. Engaging in such illegal and ineffective businesses not only wastes time and effort but also risks missing out on valuable life experiences and growth. Therefore, rather than squandering one's youth on these high-risk, low-value, and legally prohibited fringe activities, it is better to focus on legal, compliant, and promising career paths, seeking long-term development through stability.
In the world of two-way trading in forex investment, traders who truly achieve stable profits are often taciturn, rarely lecturing others on so-called "principles."
This is not out of arrogance or stinginess, but stems from a profound insight into the nature of the market and the laws of human nature. As seen in traditional real life, truly wise people never readily preach—the intelligent have their own understanding, needing no external guidance; the confused, even with earnest instruction, will struggle to comprehend. If a wise person is willing to speak, it's mostly because they perceive the other person as being at the critical point of "potential": neither entirely enlightened nor utterly confused, requiring only a little guidance to potentially leap into a state of understanding. This kind of guidance is well-intentioned, not interfering; just like the earnest teachings of parents, their initial intention is simply to help their children grow up quickly and become independent in the world.
Similarly, in the highly specialized and uncertain field of forex trading, those traders who have truly triumphed through market trials understand that the way of trading cannot be summarized in a few formulas or experiences. It is a complex system engineering project integrating a knowledge system, market common sense, technical analysis, practical experience, and psychological control. Its subtleties require years of immersion, trial and error, reflection, and accumulation to internalize. A few words cannot convey its essence, and a few days are insufficient for anyone to master it. Even well-intentioned outsiders cannot do it for you; even your closest relatives, like parents, cannot complete this mental and technical training for you—just as you cannot force-feed an adult, growth is ultimately a personal matter, and the leap in understanding can only be accomplished by oneself. This is why those traders who truly make money choose silence, not out of indifference, but because they deeply understand the principle that "the way cannot be lightly passed on, and the method cannot be arbitrarily taught"; they understand that only those who personally traverse the fog can truly see the light.
In the two-way forex market, a true transformation in a trader's understanding often begins when short-term trading strategies consistently fail and become unprofitable.
This leap in understanding is not instantaneous; it requires years of refinement through market fluctuations to gradually shift participants from a fervent pursuit of short-term volatility to a profound respect for long-term trends and market cycles. Looking back at the early experiences of most traders, it's easy to see that they were generally trapped in the misconception of short-term trading. They invested significant time and energy in real-time market monitoring and analysis, yet ultimately succumbed to the gradual depletion of their capital and the inability to sustain their investments. This precisely demonstrates that the primary prerequisite for achieving sustainable investment results in the market is establishing a mindset that abandons short-term trading.
Essentially, there is a profound inherent contradiction between short-term trading and the compounding goal pursued by long-term investment. Attempting to reap huge profits through short-term trading inevitably entails high risks and misses out on major market movements spanning multiple cycles. Furthermore, the short-term fluctuations in the forex market are inherently complex, rife with disorderly noise and human intervention. For ordinary people with limited information and slow reaction times, consistently and accurately capturing short-term fluctuation patterns and achieving stable profits is undeniably difficult.
More importantly, the opportunity cost of short-term trading cannot be ignored. Traders who become obsessed with capturing short-term trading signals not only continuously consume significant attention and trading capital but also fall into a cognitive blind spot, failing to see the forest for the trees. Ultimately, they overlook high-value trend opportunities, and even if they do perceive them, they may be unable to capitalize on them due to excessive energy and capital expenditure.
In fact, the core essence of forex trading lies in following the trend and patiently waiting for the right opportunity. Only by letting go of the obsession with daily market fluctuations and focusing on the broader market structure and direction can traders grasp the true nature of investment. Reducing unnecessary frequent operations not only effectively minimizes the interference of decision fatigue on judgment but also improves the potential profit-loss ratio of each trade, laying the foundation for long-term profitability.
For forex traders, the core path to long-term survival and steady progress lies in patiently waiting for the trend to become clear, adhering to the rhythm of trend evolution with discipline, and proactively resonating with the main market forces. This is both a respect for market laws and a rational choice to navigate the fog of short-term fluctuations and anchor long-term value. Furthermore, it is an essential requirement for practicing sustainable trading logic after upgrading investment understanding.
The core driving force of short-term forex market forces lies in conforming to smaller-scale trends, while the core logic of long-term forces is rooted in following larger-scale trends.
In the external forex two-way trading market, traders' understanding of the main forces should return to the essence of trends: the core driving force of short-term forces lies in conforming to smaller-scale trends, while the core logic of long-term forces is rooted in following larger-scale trends. Both are essentially concrete manifestations of trend forces. Rather than focusing on the size of the capital, the key to determining the correctness of a trade lies in whether the trader is aligned with the trend. The ultimate force driving the market is not a specific capital entity, but the trend itself. Only by anchoring to the trend direction can one grasp the core essence of trading.
The wisdom of following the trend is reflected not only in the firm execution when the judgment is clear, but also in the prudent restraint when the market is chaotic. When traders struggle to form a clear understanding of market trends, proactively choosing to remain out of the market and abandoning the impulse to blindly trade, patiently waiting for the trend to become clear, is a profound practice of the trend-following principle. Similarly, when the trading judgment is validated by the market, and the trend direction aligns with the position, sufficient patience is needed to hold the position, not rushing to realize short-term profits, allowing profits to grow fully as the trend continues. This is also an indispensable core element of trend-following trading logic.